Closing this out.
the battery was dead. one cell of four drained.
yes, should be possible to read voltage on the connector.
because my battery was dead the bms wasn’t allowing any discharge. so not being able to measure voltage on the connector, and not having put the battery in disconnect mode was a pretty good clue the battery was dead.
closed cased debugger probably would have worked
using a CCD to talk with the EC, would have shown no battery connected flag. but i didn’t figure out how to try that.
examples from ectool battery run from linux
Flags 0x0b AC_PRESENT BATT_PRESENT CHARGING
vs
Flags 0x09 AC_PRESENT CHARGING