Note: if you want to plug your batch number into the slope of any of the trend lines, it will give a high estimate for the days since first batch because of the higher gaps between some of these early batches. I think Framework will be more consistent in batch spacing now that their ramp up has stabilized and suppliers are moving smoothly. As suggested by someone on the reddit post, I will also move to a polynomial trendline that will better show the new slope once there is enough data.
2 Likes
Oh, good grief, not another batch tracking thread. Why not put it in the other thread?
https://community.frame.work/t/batches-shipping-log/45516
Seems to me that it’s easier to bookmark and refer to in its own thread.
4 Likes
I figured this would be easier for me to update, and might not mesh quite right with other topics. Also easier to get feedback here on it’s own thread like what I got on reddit where the polynomial trendline was suggested.
4 Likes
A) I sort of encouraged OP to post this in the forums, thinking people would like it.
B) I merged another thread into the Batch Shipping log in the past and people didn’t like it.
I think this graph is awesome and it definitely deserves it’s own thread.
24 Likes
I looked at the other thread and I actually quite like this version better because of the graph.
PS: @TwigGlenn4 Time to update as we have people who are reporting getting charged in Batch 5.
Not me though, lol. Of course not. 
4 Likes
Awesome, I’ll put together the update after class.
3 Likes
@TwigGlenn4 After the next batch or 2 start getting charged & shipped (so more data), maybe extend the # of batches out to the right, which might give us a vague idea of when we might get the email/charged/shipped for those of us in the double-digit batch numbers?
2 Likes
I am planning to extend the chart once I have better than linear trendlines. Hopefully we’ll be forecasting to the latest batch by the end of this month! (with disclaimers, of course)
1 Like
UPDATE 3-18-2024: Batch 5 Cards Charged
A few people in batch 5 have had their card charged, so I’m expecting their laptops to arrive in about 3.3 days!
Deltas Chart
As my birthday gift to everyone here, I’ve also added two sets of deltas, first is the number of days between email and card charged, and the second is between card charged and laptop arrival. This means I can include these deltas on a graph below, but I think it looks too busy. Let me know what you think and whether I should include this delta chart in future updates or just keep it in the Sheet for anyone interested.
Average Deltas
I think these numbers are more useful and readable than the chart above. If I end up removing the chart with deltas, this section will remain.
Email-Card Delta: 4.0
Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
Future Updates
My new plan is to update here when there is new data as it’s fast for me when I’m not causing feature creep, and then make summaries on reddit on weekends. I have also decided (semi-arbitrarily) that I will start polynomial regression with Batch 7, so as the points are added for Batch 7, I will switch that series’ trendline to polynomial and extend the chart as far as I can with it still looking reasonable.
The Google Sheet is still at the same link, visit the first post to see all the secrets.
10 Likes
Nice, thanks!
Yeah, only an estimate, but as long as people keep chiming in with their email/charge/ship dates, should have enough data to give moderately reasonable estimates.
4 Likes
Happy birthday TwigGlenn4!
4 Likes
Delta Chart Poll
I forgot polls exist yesterday, and this seems like the perfect usage for one. Please vote on whether I should keep posting the Delta Chart as seen in UPDATE 3-18-24 here in future updates OR just keep it updated in the Google Sheet on the Chart + Delta page.
- Include Delta Chart here in future updates
- Keep Delta Chart only in the Google Sheet
0
voters
1 Like
Thank you for your efforts.
I’m keeping this thread as a pinned tab so I can easily refer to it and be able to see updates as they roll on. 
Cheers
1 Like
Here’s my report:
Batch: 4
Preparing Email: March 7
Payment Charged: March 13
Laptop Arrived: March 18
1 Like
UPDATE 3-19-2024: Batch 6 Heads-up Emails
I’m in batch 6, so I’m super excited for this! If everything stays similar to the last few batches, batch 6 should start getting charged on Friday, with the first laptops arriving early next week (in 7.3 days, by previous deltas)!
Deltas Chart
The deltas chart is much more popular than I expected, so it’s here to stay! Today’s point is a brand new batch, so it does not affect the deltas themselves, but I’m updating the chart with the new email trendline for consistency.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.0
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
Future Updates
Same plan as last time: updates here as they happen, then summaries on Reddit on weekends.
Polynomial regression begins batch 7, which may be closer than I thought!
The Google Sheet link is still the same, check out the first post for wizardly prediction powers.
5 Likes
Batch 6
Preparing email: March 19
1 Like
UPDATE 3-21-2024: Batch 5 Laptops Have Arrived
Congrats to everyone in Batch 5, I hope you like your new laptops! Of course, if your laptop hasn’t arrived quite yet, it should be there in a few days. I’ve extended the charts to batch 8 now that batch 5 is finished, giving us even more overestimated predictions compared to how steadily production seems to be ramping up.
Deltas Chart
Batch 5’s quick turnaround from card charge to laptop arrival is a good sign for future batches. It only took 3 days again bring the average Card-Arrival Delta down slightly to 3.2. I’m hoping this stays the same for batch 6 and beyond, but with the weekend coming up batch 6 might have a slight delay.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.0
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.2
6 Likes
“finished”? by what metric? they’re still shipping, and i’ve seen no evidence that ALL of the units in batch 5 have left framework yet, let alone reach customers.
heck, don’t we still have batch 4 customers receiving units?
I meant finished for my purposes. I am well aware that not everyone has their laptops yet, but I’m only tracking the first arrivals for this chart because shipping can vary by location and there’s not much point in waiting until every laptop has arrived and there’s no real way to be sure of that. This is the same reason I will post the update for batch 6 when I first hear that a laptop has arrived instead of waiting for my specific laptop to arrive.
1 Like