I meant finished for my purposes. I am well aware that not everyone has their laptops yet, but I’m only tracking the first arrivals for this chart because shipping can vary by location and there’s not much point in waiting until every laptop has arrived and there’s no real way to be sure of that. This is the same reason I will post the update for batch 6 when I first hear that a laptop has arrived instead of waiting for my specific laptop to arrive.
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Batch 5, just received today (3/22). It was shipped yesterday! I’m in mid-west US, so very surprised at how fast shipping was. FedEx beat the stated delivery time of 3/25 (Mon).
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UPDATE 3-25-2024: Batch 6 Charged and Batch 7 Email
Today’s a double whammy, we’ve got batch 6 cards charged and batch 7 is getting heads up emails! Also, as promised, polynomial trendlines are arriving for series with batch 7 data. As you can see, the current polynomial line is not great for predicting, it peaks soon after the end of the data, so I’ll work on figuring out something to make it better soon. If you have any suggestions for this, I’d love your input.
Deltas Chart
Batch 6’s email-card delta is much longer than expected, but I’m putting it down to timing with the weekend. Hopefully future batches will be closer to our previous deltas for shorter overall deltas.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.3
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.2
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We can see the curve already, I love this!
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I wonder if it would be better to track relative data that accounts only business days?
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I’d try removing batches one through three from the graph. It’s a smaller sample then, but I’d expect linear progression when looking at the Heads-Up mails since batch 4. Production might get faster, but if the batch sizes have grown also, the delivery cadence might stay the same.
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Is there a way to plot as a sort of moving average, so the slope would be just based on the last 2 or 3 points? It’s tough to expect any of this to follow any single equation, so it’s hard to use any of that for predictive purposes. Some sort of moving trend might be more insightful, but I don’t know how to do that in spreadsheet software.
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This sounds like a great idea, I’ll look into graphing this.
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I think you could actually do a logarithmic curve fit as a semi reasonable fastest possible prediction and leave the linear curve fit as the slowest possible.
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This looks great How to Calculate Moving Average in Google Sheets
(I know that a bit of advanced stock graps do similar things and do other things on top of it, but better just stick to the moving average thing for this spreadsheet).
Note: finance graphs may use multiple moving averages, so don’t be afraid to use moving averages with different periods if they add value.
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I was going to say this, especially for the deltas, I think business days would see them line up quite a bit more.
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UPDATE 3-29-2024: Batch 6 First Arrivals Two Days Ago, Whoops, and Batch 7 Cards Charged
First, new trendlines. I could probably have kept linear trendlines if I excluded the first three batches, but I wanted to keep as much data as possible visible, and I’m sure many of you want that too. Another suggestion was a logarithmic trendline, but while accounting for early stutters in production, it would eventually flatten out to very little time between batches. I’ve decided to use the moving average trendline, which is also built into google sheets with a few caveats. As the dates are always increasing, the moving average falls below the data points because it uses the current point and previous points (the centered option avoids this but is less useful). To deal with this issue I’ve applied a constant offset to the trendlines to help line it up with the data. The main downsides are the constant offset potentially causing problems in the future and extra entries in the legend for the trendlines, but I hope the new accuracy makes up for those.
Now for the fun part, batch 6’s first arrivals began two days ago while I was out of town and the nearly 10 year old notebook I had with me would struggle with the few tabs I have open to work on these, so I didn’t go through fighting Google Sheets to find a better trendline while away. Batch 7 also started getting cards charged today, so their next step should be shipping notifications!
Finally, my brief review: My laptop came in yesterday, so I’m glad I could arrange for someone to sign for it while I was driving home. I put the laptop together last night and it was really fun to build. It felt blazing fast, but that is influenced by that almost 10 year old notebook I’ve had for a while. I’m dual-booting XUbuntu 22.04 with Windows 11 and have very few issues on that front. I was shocked at how well the iGPU performs, managing ~40FPS at full resolution in Subnautica at low graphics on XUbuntu+Proton (I know Subnautica isn’t the best benchmark, it’s just one I distinctly remember an old laptop with dGPU struggling enough that physics was a mere suggestion). This beast is snappy, fast and so cool.
Deltas Chart
The Deltas are keeping linear trendlines until I see enough variation to change it, but they look fine for now. I’ve also implemented the change for deltas to count business days only, so weekends will cause fewer spikes.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.1
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
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Thanks for keeping the chart updated o7 and I’m happy to hear that you enjoyed assembling your own Framework Laptop 16.
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UPDATE 4-1-2024: Batch 8 Emails
Batch 8 emails have been sent out to some mild scrutiny for the date, but thankfully the great @Destroya has reassured us that this is NOT an evil April fools joke! Rejoice, batch 8, your laptops will soon be on their way! This also shows that the new trend lines are updating and keeping on the right track, so that’s another good sign!
Deltas Chart
This announcement does not affect our deltas, so no changes here except the new point.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.1
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
– Posted from my FW16
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Lol, I love it! Keep up the good work 
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Awesome! At this rate I jught even get my email at the very tail end of the month if I’m lucky. First full week if May otherwise I think 
Yay!
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UPDATE 3-25-2024: Batch 7 Arrivals
The first laptops in batch 7 have arrived, congrats to everyone now holding a shiny new Framework 16! Hope you have as much fun with it as I’m having!
Deltas Chart
This new delta is so close to our existing averages, the only change is the Card-Arrival delta pulling down slightly.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.1
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
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Forgot to change the date in the title
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Hola
With the current pause in manufacturing, due to the recent earthquake in Taiwan, I wonder what amount of delay is to be expected… A few days or weeks.
Either way best to the Framework team and partners in Taiwan.
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Strongest quake in 25 years! Hope they are all OK.
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