I’m creating a chart that plots batch number vs. the dates of batch preparation emails and laptop arrival, inspired by the redditor posting similar charts during the FW13 AMD launch.
New major update in shipping, some Batch 4 shipments have arrived! Batch 4 will continue to arrive over the next few days, so good luck to everyone in that batch! I’ve also adjusted the graph since my last reddit post to include two prediction batches. Please remember these are just predictions and they are skewed with the first few batches, so the predicted dates might not line up with the actual dates.
All this data is gathered from the FW16 Batch # Guild and the Batches Shipping Log topics here on the Framework Community forum by first occurrence.
I don’t want to post spam, so I will probably only update weekly (or bi-weekly, if people REALLY want that) now that I’ve got the chart looking a bit better. As usual, please let me know if I missed anything, made a typo, or you want to see some changes to the chart formatting.
This chart was made in Google Sheets, see the data at the link.
Note: if you want to plug your batch number into the slope of any of the trend lines, it will give a high estimate for the days since first batch because of the higher gaps between some of these early batches. I think Framework will be more consistent in batch spacing now that their ramp up has stabilized and suppliers are moving smoothly. As suggested by someone on the reddit post, I will also move to a polynomial trendline that will better show the new slope once there is enough data.
I figured this would be easier for me to update, and might not mesh quite right with other topics. Also easier to get feedback here on it’s own thread like what I got on reddit where the polynomial trendline was suggested.
A) I sort of encouraged OP to post this in the forums, thinking people would like it.
B) I merged another thread into the Batch Shipping log in the past and people didn’t like it.
I think this graph is awesome and it definitely deserves it’s own thread.
@TwigGlenn4 After the next batch or 2 start getting charged & shipped (so more data), maybe extend the # of batches out to the right, which might give us a vague idea of when we might get the email/charged/shipped for those of us in the double-digit batch numbers?
I am planning to extend the chart once I have better than linear trendlines. Hopefully we’ll be forecasting to the latest batch by the end of this month! (with disclaimers, of course)
A few people in batch 5 have had their card charged, so I’m expecting their laptops to arrive in about 3.3 days!
Deltas Chart
As my birthday gift to everyone here, I’ve also added two sets of deltas, first is the number of days between email and card charged, and the second is between card charged and laptop arrival. This means I can include these deltas on a graph below, but I think it looks too busy. Let me know what you think and whether I should include this delta chart in future updates or just keep it in the Sheet for anyone interested.
I think these numbers are more useful and readable than the chart above. If I end up removing the chart with deltas, this section will remain.
Email-Card Delta: 4.0
Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
Future Updates
My new plan is to update here when there is new data as it’s fast for me when I’m not causing feature creep, and then make summaries on reddit on weekends. I have also decided (semi-arbitrarily) that I will start polynomial regression with Batch 7, so as the points are added for Batch 7, I will switch that series’ trendline to polynomial and extend the chart as far as I can with it still looking reasonable.
The Google Sheet is still at the same link, visit the first post to see all the secrets.
Yeah, only an estimate, but as long as people keep chiming in with their email/charge/ship dates, should have enough data to give moderately reasonable estimates.
I forgot polls exist yesterday, and this seems like the perfect usage for one. Please vote on whether I should keep posting the Delta Chart as seen in UPDATE 3-18-24 here in future updates OR just keep it updated in the Google Sheet on the Chart + Delta page.
I’m in batch 6, so I’m super excited for this! If everything stays similar to the last few batches, batch 6 should start getting charged on Friday, with the first laptops arriving early next week (in 7.3 days, by previous deltas)!
Deltas Chart
The deltas chart is much more popular than I expected, so it’s here to stay! Today’s point is a brand new batch, so it does not affect the deltas themselves, but I’m updating the chart with the new email trendline for consistency.
Average Email-Card Delta: 4.0
Average Card-Arrival Delta: 3.3
Future Updates
Same plan as last time: updates here as they happen, then summaries on Reddit on weekends.
Polynomial regression begins batch 7, which may be closer than I thought!
The Google Sheet link is still the same, check out the first post for wizardly prediction powers.
Congrats to everyone in Batch 5, I hope you like your new laptops! Of course, if your laptop hasn’t arrived quite yet, it should be there in a few days. I’ve extended the charts to batch 8 now that batch 5 is finished, giving us even more overestimated predictions compared to how steadily production seems to be ramping up.
Deltas Chart
Batch 5’s quick turnaround from card charge to laptop arrival is a good sign for future batches. It only took 3 days again bring the average Card-Arrival Delta down slightly to 3.2. I’m hoping this stays the same for batch 6 and beyond, but with the weekend coming up batch 6 might have a slight delay.
“finished”? by what metric? they’re still shipping, and i’ve seen no evidence that ALL of the units in batch 5 have left framework yet, let alone reach customers.
heck, don’t we still have batch 4 customers receiving units?
