Yeah that probably explains the variance, you using windows or something else?
I’d bet it doesn’t discharge all the way down but just a little further each time which would explain your initial downward trend.
Framework really should implement the online re-calibrate routine in the ec to eliminate that (hell it’s open source I might take a crack at that if they don’t).
That’ll just give you even messier data, the dc-dc efficiency changes a lot more than the charging efficiency does. You could use a slow charger to reduce the charging efficiency differences even more if you want to do that.
Good enough I suppose since that is how it has been done for ages now but it is certainly not perfect not that perfect really is required.
Since the wear curves are usually not linear idk if you can extrapolate like that, they also afaik didn’t define what a cycle means and your battery may actually have more than 55Wh (even factory new cells have varying capacities) from factory which would hide the actual wear rate for a bit.
With the 18650s the roule of thumb was about double the cycles for every 0.05v less max voltage (of course you loose capacity initially but you’ll keep it longer), so if a 4.2v max cell is rated for 80% capacity after 300 4.2->2.5v cycles it would get 80% capacity after 600 4.15-2.5 cycles and 1200 4.1-2.5 cycles and so on. Given that there usually wasn’t all that much capacity at the higher voltages this tends to be a good tradeoff.
I have not seen too much data on the spicy 4.40 or 4.45 chemistry the framework battery uses but I’d bet it has similar wear characteristics so your only charging to 4v per cell should increase your longevity dramatically, assuming you aren’t grilling the battery cause temperature causes wear too independently.
Anyway, point is you should be careful drawing conclusions from data that is more noise than signal, humans are made to see patterns so we often tend to see them where they aren’t or misinterpret stuff.
Would be neat to get a datasheet for the cells in the framework batteries but I doubt that’s going to happen.